I love this set of predictions:

Especially number 4:

4) First-generation EHRs will fail. As health care organizations move to adopt EHRs as part of the federal government’s meaningful-use program, the first-generation of EHRs will fail to meet expectations under the government’s requirements, Lundstrom said.

“Most EMRs [or EHRs] are not capable of supporting business requirements under reform, analytics or integration that average health care organization believe they were buying,” Lundstrom explained. According to a recent IDC survey, 58 percent of providers are dissatisfied or neutral about their EHR platform and 22 percent have already replaced their health record software.

Doctors’ practices and hospitals are forced to adopt multiple EHR platforms because they’re not suitable for multiple tasks, according to Lundstrom. Most EHR vendors are unable to support virtual desktops and are “hiding from the cloud,” he said. “Most don’t have a road map.”

One EHR platform might work best for a hospital and another for an outpatient, or ambulatory practice, he said. “The EMR [electronic medical record] has gone from the star of the show to just another siloed app on the processed stack,” Lundstrom said. Instead, health care CIOs will focus on mobility, analytics and cloud computing,”

I like their use of the term “First Generation EHRs”, as indeed, that is what they are.  It is unfortunate that EHRs have been around since the 1970’s, and yet remain at the first generation level, and that the US Government is pushing physicians and hospitals to use this obsolete technology.  Were it not for the ONC, most EHR vendors would be out of business, and the US healthcare system would be a lot better off.  If the ONC had its way, hospitals would also have to use cell phones the size of shoeboxes and PDAs.  Can’t we replace ONC with a new government agency called OOTLHIT (Office of the latest HIT)?  Or better yet, stop the government from central planning?  (Didn’t the government learn that central planning does not work?  Ask the Soviet Union (Oh wait, you can’t, they no longer exist because…central planning and innovation are not compatible!))


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